Allan is a big guy. I mean a really big guy. 6’5″ 215, though he looks like he carries a bit more weight than that. Nonetheless the point to understand is that he is an imposing figure on the baseball field. He dwarfs the rest of the infield, who barely crack 5’11″ , and I doubt that those numbers are honest. The guy looks like a ball player. His name even has that major league pedigree, though he bears no relation to the former Philly Lenny. He has the sort of physique that is deceptive because his physicality seems to imply a natural talent for the game. Unfortunately, his stature seems to be the only thing keeping him on the Storm.

As a batter, Dykstra should shine. His raw numbers tell a different story. His career line sits at .231/.392/.389, which would be pretty decent in the MLB but if you look at his Major League Equivalent as adjusted by Minorleaguesplits.com it comes out to a paltry .148/.247/.228. Thats an OPS of .475 , which is just bad. Steve Carlton had a better OPS and he was a pitcher. Major League batter usually average an OPS of close to .750. The bigger issue is that Dykstra projects to be a power hitter because of his frame and his position. It’s not so much that he can’t hit the crap out of the ball, because when he connects the ball goes sailing.

The problem is he strikes out. A lot. He strikes out close to twenty-five percent of at bats. In a batter favored league like the Cal League, he should not come near these numbers. For a comparison, previously covered SS Drew Cumberland strikes out at only a 12 percent clip. One could contend that Dykstra strikes out so much because he attempts to crush the ball at every chance he gets. This is partially true. He has a big looping swing that generates a lot of power, often causing him to get underneath the ball, creating a high fly ball percentage.

However, it should be noted that Dykstra has relatively decent patience at the plate. He works the count and dares pitchers to challenge him. He is decent at recognizing balls and strikes and can hold off on swinging at bad pitches. Unfortunately his swing takes a long time to get going so he has to cheat (start his swing early) to get good connection. (This is a similar problem to the issues David Ortiz is having at the current stage of his career) Because of this he often misses on sliders and good curves. As a reaction to this he also can freeze at the plate and often watches a called third strike zip by while he stares dumbfounded at the ball in the catcher’s mitt. He is your worst nightmare if you are having a bad night, but pitchers with good location or moderately good stuff are often very successful against him.

You would hope that maybe his fielding would make him a more valuable asset, though this is not really the case either. Playing at first base saps his value in the field, as it has long been a safe haven for big hitters with nominal fielding talent ala Jason Giambi. Not only does is he devalued by position, he is also a not the greatest fielder. He lacks range and has minimal quickness. His only plus is that his size allows him to reach poor or wild throws with ease. The fact that he is not producing at the plate only serves to further damn him as a 1b prospect. Especially when the Storm have a hotter hitting 1b prospect in Cody Decker,though he sits about 7 inches shorter than Dykstra.

Also I feel it must make mention of Dykstra’s especially poor performance on the base paths. Not only will he succumb to any infield hit thereby marginalizing his ability to be a productive hitter, he is not a threat to steal if  somehow he does get on base. Through April, he has no steal attempts what so ever. Also his base running is atrocious, as he lumbers from base to base. He has a hard time stopping, often overrunning bags if he doesn’t get a signal in time.

And if you hadnt already guessed from the title, the Padres sunk 1 million dollars in to him already. Some fruitful spending, eh?

9 to 4. I was getting ready to leave, because who cares if the Storm lose, the tickets don’t cost me much, and the lovely company I was keeping was getting awfully cold.” Just to the end of this inning” I say. I had soured on this bloodletting somewhere in the fifth, but Im not the kind of guy who can really leave before the end of a game, so we stayed.

And damn, am I glad to be that kind of guy.

The beginning of the inning was inauspicious enough. A hit! Hey I like those. Alas, two outs came on the board faster than I remember then happening. I was growing weary of stranding baserunners. But then, a walk. Another hit. Then one more. Then another. All of the sudden its seven to nine and I’m on the edge of my seat, cheering and clap, clap, clapping my hands.

Next up is Allan Dykstra, our DH for the evening. He had displayed some theatrics earlier with a solo shot in the fourth, and with two men on, every one in the crowd was thinking the exact same thing. “Give us another one, Allan”. We were all desperate. We gave up on this game long ago, and now suddenly all of that was extinguished by the Storm’s new-found electricity at the plate.

The at bat seemed like forever. Dykstra is usually very patient at the plate, so seeing him take a few pitches was not out of the ordinary. But christ the time between each pitch seemed like forever.

2-2 and I had a premonition for what happened next. Sitting behind the protective net, I always have trouble tracking the ball through the air. I didn’t know it was out of the park until I caught a final glimpse of it dropping over the fence. The big guy came through.

But it wasnt over. We still had to get through the top of the 9th. Enter Brad Brach, the shut down closer who has been lighting up the Cal League through April. I wont continue dragging it out, but that third strike out made everyone jump from their seats and scream with a fervor usually reserved for what I assume fans of English Football fans are accustomed to.

Probably the best goddamn ballgame I have ever been to.

Jeff Weaver, also on rehab with the 66ers, cruised through his first 2 innings before running into a bit of trouble in the 3rd, surrendering 2 runs. His breaking ball was coming sharply inside on left handed batters, and looked dangerous from where I was sitting. The guy can still deal though, and he made some batters look foolish to prove it.

I wasn’t so happy with the teams play tonight. It was lazy, sloppy, loafing. You could blame it on the presence of Manny, but that would be disingenuous. Poor positioning seemed to be the name of the game because the outfield was playing too deep and the infield was playing too tight to the bags. Though this didn’t stop some lazy plays on the bag, as two grounders escaped down the left field line, because the glove didn’t get down fast enough. I think half of the 66ers runs could have been prevented.

Ill probably update on run prevention soon, because this is becoming a theme.

SS Drew Cumberland

Probably my favorite player on the team at this time. Cumberland shows a lot of promise as future major leaguer, as a bat and hopefully a plus fielder. I don’t have any qualifying statistical basis for my claim on his fielding, but observing him, its clear he has potential. The guy is fast, stealing at a 90% clip for April. Unfortunately, this doesn’t completely translate in the field. Personally, I don’t see him at a perfect fit at short because he lacks a natural range, which lets a lot of ground balls escape into shallow center. This isn’t really cause for alarm, because mis-plays of this nature are fixable, i.e. Derek Jeter’s fielding under Torre vs Girardi. Better positioning and improved fielding mechanics could work wonders for Cumberland’s fielding value. I haven’t really analyzed his arm strength, but it might be better for him to shift over to 3rd where he may be less of a liability, but that sort of devalues him as a hitter, so I’m at an impasse. Also he competes for time with another hot hitting SS prospect, Cole Figeuroa, who only has one error to Cumberland’s five, and who is more spry defensively. Luckily, there isn’t a logjam at either position on the Padres so he has options open to him.

In the batters box, Cumberland has been a beast, posting a line of .439/.617/1.056.

Pardon the aside

For the uninitiated, this represents On Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage/On Base Percentage + Slugging.  On Base Percentage can be effectively described as the percentage that the batter does not make an out. Slugging weights each type of hit with a specific value, so doubles are worth twice as much as singles, triples are worth three times, home runs are worth four times. This effectively tells you how hard a player hits the ball. OPS is just the addition of the two, and it is a quick and dirty way of seeing how well a player gets on base and drives runs in.

Well now that you understand, I suppose I should explain to you that this is really impressive. If Cumberland was playing in the majors he would be mentioned up with Robinson Cano as one of the hottest hitters in April. While impressive, don’t let this fool you into believing that he is the next Albert Pujols, because the Cal League is very hitter friendly due to mostly sub-standard pitching and some faulty defense. Nonetheless, Cumberland is making a splash. His ability to hit for power, with 3 homers, firmly plants him as a middle of the line up hitter, though his OBP and speed on the base paths could also allow him to hit leadoff. Frankly, these are the sort of things that shake out a higher level but it gives you a picture of a major league equivalent, so I feel it is fruitful to include it. Cumberland’s patience at the plate isnt an issue, as he post a slightly below average strike out rate, as well as an average walk rate. For a guy producing so well offensively, you might expect a couple more walks, but one has to remember he is not facing MLB pitching. In summary, at 21 years old Cumberland projects to be an effective Major league bat and an acceptable fielder, who should excel at every level and give the Padres a spark in their aging in-field.

Some notes:

• This is my first real analysis of a prospect so I hope I didn’t mess it up to badly
• This is first in a series on Storm players
• Goddamn, it is hard to find a picture of Cumberland in a Storm jersey

So, my goal is to keep you informed about the team, its stand out players and transactions, though I suspect I will deviate from them from time to time to address major baseball news and let you know when some superstar does a rehab stint through the Cal League (MANNY RAMIREZ WAS HERE). I plan on utilizing some advanced metrics, though I am still relatively new to the SABR community so hopefully your knowledge of advanced stats will increase as mine does. When I do use them, I will be sure to give an acceptable explanation as to why I believe a stat is worthwhile as well as how it works. I will not use RBI, because hitters can not magically put the batters in front of them on base(more on this in the future). Also its a good bet that I will get side tracked talking about music, because I know I have a truly unique taste that I will be compelled to share.

I suppose it would be proper to tell you a couple things about the Storm, just to get you up to speed. The Storm have been around since as long as I can remember, though the early days are awfully hazy to me. In 1994 the Storm were still a high A affiliate, but unfortunately they were a part of the hated California/Anahiem/Los Angeles of Anahiem/Los Angeles Angels. This meant scrappy, gritty players along the lines Darin (Fucking) Erstad, one of the heroes of the Angels prolific 2002 World Series run, who make me sick because they look like they try harder or whatever bullshit perpetuates their careers. Thankfully, the clubs ownership changed hands, as well as its MLB affiliation. This, however, meant the loss of the beloved mascot Hamlet, who, in the early years, meant more to me than any ball player could.

Hamlet: A Dragon who has no correlation to the team name

These days the Storm call the San Diego Padres their papa(I regret this joke) and as such have continued to field interesting prospects and a bevy of high draft picks. For example, Jake Peavy pitched here(hey thats the name of the blog), though I have a very vague recollection of watching him pitch. I distinctly remember watching Khalil Greene during his brief stint in Lake Elsinore. Also they used to have Xavier Nady’s number retired but then I guess they felt it wasn’t deserved and it was replaced with Peavy’s number, which will become another hilarious footnote in the Padres register of faliures.

This year’s team contains a lot of very interesting offensive prospects and a couple eventual major league bull pen arms. My next post will discuss the up and comers and a couple other interesting guys who might surprise the Cal league.

Other Interesting Facts You Can Learn From Wikipedia:

• The stadium is called Pete Lehr Field, I can’t be bothered to do a search as to why
• It seats 7,866 fans, though the only time I’ve seen it that full was my graduation ceremony
• One time the storm beat the Lancaster JetHawks 30-0, who deserved it because they have an idiotic name.

Things only a fan can tell you

• Thirsty Thursdays are the best day to go to the games, because who doesnt like dollar beer night
• If you feel like heckling, come on a Monday, because the park is empty, but please harass the visiting team
• Avoid Wednesdays if you like to swear in public, because kids get in free

So thanks for reading this rambling introduction, in the future I hope to be a bit more concise and maybe a bit more serious.